The results of the survey on electoral emotions in Lithuania before the 2-nd round of presidential elections (26 of May 2019)

The results of the survey on electoral emotions in Lithuania before the 2-nd round of presidential elections (26 of May 2019)

The method of the survey:

Sociological CAWI (Computer Assisted Web Interviewing) research. Sociologists interviewed 1,000 participants of the internet-panels, which represent Lithuanian public opinion on demographic and geographical levels.

The period of the survey: from 17th to 23rd of May, 2019.

The questionnaire was composed in order to reveal what emotion: hope, fear or humiliation, elicits each of two candidates for a presidential run: Ingrida Šimonytė and Gitanas Nausėda.

The general data showed that Gitanas Nauseda elicits the emotion of hope almost twice more often than Ingrida Simonyte. He practically does not evoke humiliation and evokes a rather low level of fear among voters.

What best describes the emotion you feel towards presidential candidates?

G. Nauseda

I. Simonyte

Hope

43,5%

26%

Fear

7,5%

19,3%

Humiliation

2,3%

11%

Hard to say

46,7%

43,7%

The reasons for emotions the politics elicit reveal the true relation, social problems, and preferences of different strata of Lithuanians.

The general results of the survey showed that Lithuanians are more concerned about the economic situation  than the foreign policy of Lithuania: they hope that G. Nauseda “will achieve social justice in the country” (28,6% of the entire HOPE for this candidate) and “he will win corruption in Lithuania with the help of reforms” (32,8% of the entire HOPE for G. Nauseda), only 9% of those who hope for G. Nauseda care about the foreign policy – they hope that he will continue the firm policy towards Russia's Government.

The partisans of I. Simonyte more often hope that “she will continue Grybauskaite’s legacy of maintaining a firm, no-nonsense attitude toward the Kremlin and protect our independence” (30,4% of the HOPE for I. Simonyte),  they hope very much that she “will effectively pursue social justice in the country” (43,4% of the HOPE for I. Simonyte), they don`t believe at all that she can how to eradicate corruption in the country (only 3,4% of the Hope for I. Simonyte)

I. Simonyte elicits a rather high level of fear among Lithuanians – almost every fifth (19,3% of polled) is feeling fear of her as a politic. The reasons for this emotion are:

 - She will protect the interests of the rich people, rather than ordinary people (34,5% of the Fear for I. Simonyte)

 - I am afraid that the conflict with Russia will be her excuse for declining living standards (25,2% of FEAR)

- She will not be able to fight corruption effectively (21,8% of the FEAR for I. Simonyte)

Remarkable that I. Simonyte elicits  most of Humiliation  because “She is concerned with the immediate needs of her surroundings, rather than the interests of the people” (53,9% of the entire HUMILIATION) it can be associated with the fact that I. Simonyte participated in elections as an independent candidate but  with the financial support of the Party of Homeland Union-Lithuanian Christian Democrats.

21,3% of those who chose Humiliation, feel this emotion because “The President of Lithuania cannot be a person who has failed to build traditional relationships”.

Gitanas Nauseda

Reasons for mass emotions for Gitanas Nauseda

32,8%

He is an experienced economist and he will win corruption in Lithuania with the help of reforms

28,6%

He knows the people's needs and will achieve social justice in the country

26,1%

Gitanas Nausėda is the lesser evil of the two candidates

9%

He will continue Grybauskaite’s legacy of maintaining a firm, no-nonsense attitude toward the Kremlin and protect our independence.

3,5%

Another reason

37,7%

He will serve the EU bankers, who will manage Lithuanian finances.

32,5%

He will protect the interests of the rich, and we will become even poorer

14,7%

He will not be able to fight corruption effectively.

8,5%

He is a weak politician and will not be able to resist the pressure of the Kremlin.

6,6%

Another reason

43%

He will serve the interests of bankers

20,3%

With him, the scale of corruption will increase

18,3%

He will unquestioningly obey the will of the European Union.

12,1%

Another reason

6,4%

He is too weak to resist Putin

36,8%

I’ve never thought about politics from the standpoint of my emotions

25%

There is no suitable emotion among these three. I don't care about him.

22,3%

I am against both candidates.

11,7%

There is no suitable emotion among these three. Nausėda makes me feel sympathy

4,3%

There is no suitable emotion among these three. Nausėda makes me feel anger

Ingrida Šimonytė

Reasons for mass emotions for Ingrida Šimonytė

43,4%

She knows the people's needs and will effectively pursue social justice in the country

30,4%

She will continue Grybauskaite’s legacy of maintaining a firm, no-nonsense attitude toward the Kremlin and protect our independence

17,5%

Ingrida Šimonytė is the lesser evil of the two candidates

5,3%

Another reason

3,4%

She knows how to eradicate corruption in the country

34,5%

She will protect the interests of the rich people, rather than ordinary people

25,2%

I am afraid that the conflict with Russia will be her excuse for declining living standards

21,8%

She will not be able to fight corruption effectively

12,5%

I think that the European Union will dictate the rules of economic policy to her

6%

Another reason

53,9%

She is concerned with the immediate needs of her surroundings, rather than the interests of the people

21,3%

The President of Lithuania cannot be a person who has failed to build traditional relationships

10,4%

Another reason

8%

The last woman who was president did not fulfill our expectations; a woman can no longer rule the country

6,5%

She will be an obedient EU lackey, tasked with doing the bidding of their officials

35%

I’ve never thought about politics from the standpoint of my emotions

34,9%

There is no suitable emotion among these three. I don't care about her

16,5%

I am against both candidates

7,5%

There is no suitable emotion among these three. Šimonytė makes me feel sympathy

6%

There is no suitable emotion among these three. Šimonytė makes me feel anger

Emotions of big cities

The survey showed the difference between the inhabitants of cities with population more than 200 000 and small towns (less than 2000 people).

Both candidates elicit quite equal hope among the citizens of big cities: Ingrida Simonyte - 40,3% and G. Nauseda - 39,5%.

city-village

Vice versa, inhabitants of small towns and villages (less than 2000 people) are hoping for G. Nauseda (44%) while I. Simonyte elicits only 17,2% of hope and 26% of fear.

The full results of the “emotional survey” of OMF have numerous stratum: generations, genders, level of welfare, nationality, etc.

The Open Mind Foundation got the results of polls 3 days before the day of Presidential elections (26 of May 2019)/ Having analyzed the results The President of OMF, Savik Shuster assumed in media that G. Nauseda will win the elections with a considerable margin.

The result of hope for I. Simonyte amounted 31,9% among those who planned to vote. She got 32,86% on elections. So the level of hope for this candidate had been quite equal to the real results.

The research of mass emotions by OMF allow to consider the risk point to which the newly elected president G. Nauseda has to pay attention at: the inhabitants of big cities, men, the generation 19-29 etc.

We see that the urgent social problems of Lithuania the new President has to start to improve – the corruption and social inequality. In this case, he will definitely unite the nation.

Researchers asked questions not only about mass emotions. The found out the attitude of Lithuanians to their deputies in the Europe Parliament and their attitude to the possibility to enter the Europe Union for Ukraine.

Which statement most closely resembles how you feel? (choose one option please)

- Lithuanian MEPs protect our interests and do everything to make us live better – 33,7%

- Lithuanian MEPs only collect high salaries and do nothing for us – 66,3%.

Do you think that the European Union should be expanded to include Ukraine?

- Yes – 46,4%

- No – 23,7%

- Hard to say – 29,9%