Ukrainians reveal which parties in the new Verkhovna Rada would give them hope

Ukrainians reveal which parties in the new Verkhovna Rada would give them hope

Why does rating political parties in terms of how much hope they inspire provide such a different picture from the results of official opinion polls?

From July 13 to July 17, the Open Mind Foundation’s sociological group, the Foundation for the Study of Mass Emotions, conducted a representative survey among Ukrainians over the age of 18 about their attitude to the 13 political parties participating in Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada (national parliamentary) elections.

During the survey, a stochastic stratified all-Ukrainian sample was used: 603 respondents from all regions of the country. Stratification takes into account the region where the respondents reside as well as the type of community they live in (urban vs. rural). This means that the answers of the survey participants accurately reflect the public opinion of the whole Ukraine (with a marginal error probability of 4%).

The researchers propose that the results of this survey shouldn’t be considered as an attempt to predict the outcome of parliamentary elections, but as a picture of what emotional expectations Ukrainians have regarding their politicians: what political forces they pin their hopes on and why; who makes them hope for a better life. Ratings of fear and humiliation show which political parties generate the most negative emotions among the inhabitants of the country.

During the survey, respondents could choose any of the three primary mass emotions (hope, fear, humiliation) for all 13 parties from the list. Therefore, the share of emotions for each party does not add up to 100%.

Sociologists did not specifically use the names of party leaders in questions about emotions. Thus, researchers learned how Ukrainians recognize parties when the names of their leaders aren’t expressly mentioned.

Hope

The respondents' greatest hope comes from the entry into the Verkhovna Rada of SERVANT OF THE PEOPLE (Sluga Narodu) (61.6%); the least hope was evoked by the Radical Party (13.4%).

Here are the reasons respondents gave for why the party SERVANT OF THE PEOPLE (Sluga Narodu) made them feel hopeful and how they were distributed:

The party SERVANT OF THE PEOPLE (Sluga Narodu) gives you hope because:

% from all who have chosen the emotion of hope

This is a party of new people and new ideas, and I believe in them.

70,2

 

These people did not participate in Euromaidan; it is easier for them to find common grounds with all of Ukraine.

8,5

 

If this party gains power, it will imprison the war profiteers.

18,4

 

Other reason

2,9

Fear

Ukrainians are most afraid of the Opposition Bloc entering the Verkhovna Rada - 36.3% of those polled said they were afraid that the bloc would gain seats in the country's parliament. The least fear was caused by the party VOICE (Holos) (13.1%).

The reasons why the prospect of the bloc entering the Verkhovna Rada causes fear among Ukrainians:

The Opposition bloc evokes fear because:

% from all who have chosen the emotion of fear

Ukraine will be in a customs union with Russia.

22,6

The policies of this party will lead to violent protests; other “maidans” in different cities in Ukraine.

31,5

Yanukovych's people will return to power.

43

Other reason

2,9

 

Humiliation

The most destructive negative emotion, humiliation, was evoked among 45.1% of respondents by the possibility of the Radical Party entering parliament. This result coincides with the results of the OMF survey conducted during the first round of the presidential campaign in Ukraine. According to the results of eight waves of polls during the first round (2,750 respondents), the Radical Party’s leader Oleg Lyashko evoked the most humiliation of any candidate among the respondents: 49%. The party SERVANT OF THE PEOPLE (Sluga Narodu) evoked the least humiliation: 12%.

Reasons why the Radical Party evokes a sense of Humiliation among Ukrainians:

The Radical Party makes you feel humiliated because:

% from all who have chosen the emotion of humiliation

The policies of the Radical Party depend on the interests of its leader — Oleg Lyashko.

27,1

This is another nationalist party that is dividing the country.

19

This is a corrupt party that can never resist the money of the oligarchs.

51,1

Other reason

2,7

Clash of the emotions of generations

The survey revealed that the emotional attitudes towards political parties vary significantly between different generations. The largest variation was found between young Ukrainians (age 18-29) and the elderly (60+ years). The party with which all generations were able to relate relatively evenly also inspired the most hope: SERVANT OF THE PEOPLE (Sluga Narodu).

The most obvious examples of the difference in emotional responses between different generations

Party

18-29 years

60+ years

OPPOSITION PLATFORM - FOR LIFE

The presence of this party in the Verkhovna Rada raises hope

8,5%

35,9%

European solidarity

The presence of this party in the Verkhovna Rada raises hope

23,5%

12,9%

The presence of this party in the Verkhovna Rada raises humiliation

34,4%

56,4%

VOICE (Holos)

The presence of this party in the Verkhovna Rada raises hope

43,5%

26,2%

FATHERLAND (Bat'kivshchyna)

The presence of this party in the Verkhovna Rada raises hope

11,9%

30,4%

STRENGTH AND HONOR (Syla i Chest`)

The presence of this party in the Verkhovna Rada raises hope

13,3%

38,5%

Civil position

The presence of this party in the Verkhovna Rada raises hope

8,2%

25,1%

SELF RELIANCE (Samopomich)

The presence of this party in the Verkhovna Rada raises humiliation

18,7%

34,2%

MOVEMENT OF NEW FORCES (Rukh Novykh Syl)

The presence of this party in the Verkhovna Rada raises humiliation

18,5%

31,4%

FREEDOM (Svoboda)

 

The presence of this party in the Verkhovna Rada raises fear

21%

37,9%

This imbalance in the emotions generated within different generations aptly reflects one fact: the chances of entering the Parliament of Ukraine are greatest for parties that inspire the most hope among the generation that participates most actively in the elections.

To get the full results of the survey, send a request to: [email protected]

Analytical Group, Open Mind Foundation