Rating of candidates for the presidency of Ukraine
in terms of hope, fear and humiliation, which they cause to voters
The results of the first wave of a representative polling conducted by the sociological service of the Savik Shuster Open Mind Foundation.
Sample group - 1000 people.
Time frame: February 17-24, 2019.
Polling forms: CATI - online polling, telephone polling, and personal interviews of respondents.
The study was conducted with the use of principle of a stratified stochastic sample, which reflects the demographic and geographical composition of the people of Ukraine.
You can view full results here.
Sociologists asked respondents to choose one of three emotions, hope, fear or humiliation that they feel towards the following candidates for presidency of Ukraine:
Y. Boiko, A. Gritsenko, D. Dobrodomov (withdrew from election on 7 of March), V. Zelenskyi, O. Liashko, E. Muraiev (withdrew from election on 7 of March), P. Poroshenko, A. Sadovyi (withdrew from election on 1 of March), Y. Tymoshenko.
As a result of the survey, we received three lists - candidates who inspire the highest hope, the highest fear and the highest humiliation.
Such a rating of candidates for the presidency of Ukraine makes it possible to understand more deeply the attitude of voters to the country's leading politicians, the reasons for this attitude and how the emotions of Ukrainians will turn into votes in elections.
1. Rating of hope
The feeling of hope in relation to the candidate gives reason to assume that, with high probability, the respondent will vote for this candidate if he or she goes to the election.
The respondents had the opportunity to choose another emotion - pride for the current president of Ukraine P. Poroshenko. People can evaluate his achievements through this feeling. We believe that people who feel pride are the most loyal supporters of the president; they will definitely come to the election and vote for him.
2. Rating of fear
Candidates who cause voters fear may still try to change people's attitude towards themselves, but for this they need a lot of effort.
3. Rating of humiliation
If voters feel humiliated by the actions of a politician, most likely they will not vote for him.
4. Rating of unrecognizability
An important factor in the polling was the level of recognizability of candidates. Almost 60% of respondents do not know D. Dobrodomov, 38.8% do not have a clue about who E. Muraiev is. The most recognizable politician in the country, according to the polling, is Yuliia Tymoshenko.
For each candidate, Savik Shuster formulated his own variants of the reasons of existence for these emotions. This makes it possible to more deeply understand why the candidate is treated this way. Reasons and other data can be seen on the voting results page when switching from the “nationwide polling” to the “representative polling”.
The nationwide voting on the site for D. Dobrodomov and E. Muraiev, who withdrew their candidacies on 7 of March, was stopped. Voting for A. Sadovyi, who entered the top five of the rating of hope, will last another week to understand better how people evaluate his decision to withdraw his candidacy.