Barometer of Hope

The research of the Open Mind Foundation aims to determine how mass emotions affect life in a country. We chose the title "Barometer of Hope" based on similar studies conducted in Europe. These studies measure emotions from a psychological perspective while we approach the work from a social and political point of view.

Our Methods and Data Timeline

Our first experiment used quota sampling to select 100 new participants to attend tapings of Shuster Live each Friday.

A team of sociologists made sure audience members accurately represented all of Ukraine according to age, gender, and region of residence. Participants were randomly selected and every citizen in the country had an equal chance of being chosen.

Over the course of 46 weeks, between Oct 2015 and December 2016, participants used tablets to choose one of three options to describe their emotions at the beginning and end of the taping: hope for the future, fear for the future, and humiliation because of the conditions you are living in. 4600 participants were surveyed in total.

We consider this data (hope – experienced by 63.7% of respondents, fear – 18.8%, humiliation – 17.5% in 2016) our starting point on the "Barometer of Hope of Ukrainians" graph.

We resumed the experiment in July 2019, this time using data from 603 participants from across the country, stratified based on region and living location (urban vs. rural). The results represent the overall opinion of the country with a 4% margin of error.

This time, participants were asked about their emotional reaction to 13 political parties participating in the parliamentary election. The data showed an increase of hope, up to 65.5% after the election of Volodymyr Zelensky, as well as a higher level of humiliation (now 20.2%).

In January-March 2020, we combined the results of six weeks worth of taping (using the same methods as described in the 2016 experiment, with 100 participants surveyed every week) to create a map of emotions experienced by Ukrainians at the beginning of this year. Hope had risen up to 70%, however, within a month this hope plummeted due to the COVID-19 crisis.

Since April 2020, OMF has been surveying 600 respondents per week (a representative sample of Ukraine's population) on their emotional state. Participants over 60 and those living in remote areas are contacted by phone, while others use internet surveys. Selection is random, stratified, and multi-step, with a 4% margin of error and a 95% confidence level. This experiment is ongoing and we continue posting weekly results on our website.

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